Foresight review: Transformation of the security environment

Dear Reader, you are holding Sitra’s foresight review, which examines the transformation of the international security environment from the perspective of Finland and Finnish society. This review presents insights from the first phase of a broader foresight project launched in May 2024. The phase is based on background interviews with 15 experts from various fields, a workshop with Sitra’s experts and a review of background literature. 

The aim of this phase has been to identify the key developments in the transformation of the security environment and to outline a comprehensive view of these changes. The value of this review lies in examining these developments collectively and in relation to one another. 

This is not a final report but an initial overview of the ongoing foresight work, intended to spark discussion. The review is aimed at decision-makers, organisations, businesses and individual citizens – all of us. Navigating the transformation of the security environment requires foresight capabilities as well as bold, constructive and inclusive discussions on security and the future. 

“In times of crisis, it is easy to focus on the immediate and long for the past, better days. However, with no return to the ‘old normal’ in sight, we need new ways to comprehend the overall picture of the transformation of the security environment, as well as alternative – and desirable – futures”, says Veera Heinonen, the director of Foresight and Training at Sitra.

A second revised edition of the foresight review was published on September 15, 2025, with three new pages and a few terms clarified. The original review was published on December 2024 in Finnish and in the early 2025 in English.