Weak signals

The future is often unexpectedly surprising. We are constantly faced with things and phenomena that we could not foresee or expect. That is why we need the ability to broaden our thoughts about what may lie ahead. Weak signals provide one way to do this. They help us to identify emerging changes, prepare for surprises, and challenge assumptions about the future.

Weak signals can also help us evaluate our current choices and actions. In addition, they encourage us to innovate when we identify phenomena that we have not encountered before.

If you only focus on ongoing trends, you may remain a prisoner to existing patterns of change and become blind to the unexpected. Weak signals accompany trends not only by introducing more surprising developments into the picture, but also by guiding us to think differently. While trends lead us to consider about continuities and ask “What next?”, weak signals emphasise discontinuity and encourage us to ask “What if?”.

Weak signals help us to:

1. identify new opportunities, ways to make a difference, and by promising new developments that we need to amplify – and thus build better futures together.
2. identify and challenge assumptions about the future while broadening our view of what is possible
3. gain insight into unexpected developments and rethink matters from the varied perspectives of our own lives, work or society.

Sitra’s Weak Signals work was originally motivated by the need to bring a complementary perspective to the popular megatrend work. The aim is to broaden thinking about the future – highlighting assumptions, challenging perceptions and expanding the range of possible futures.

In January 2025, we published a guide on detecting and utilizing weak signals. The aim is to provide anyone with accessible support and tools to consider weak signals as part of foresight. The Weak Signals 2025 Review IF* magazine was published in June.

Sitra’s previous Weak Signals publications present a set of weak signals alongside interpretations and stories of alternative futures based on them. The aim is not to provide a comprehensive list of all possible futures – which would be impossible – or even to offer an overview of every unexpected changes. Instead, these publications highlight a few potential future developments and encourage readers to identify and interpret the signals themselves, as well as to perceive more broadly the surprising and different futures that may emerge.

Our foresight work aims to increase understanding of the different possible  futures and improve the preparedness of people and societies for future changes. To be better prepared to think about and influence the future, we must not only enrich our thinking about the future but also make future knowledge more tangible and its implications more palpable in people’s everyday lives.

The future usually catches us off guard – not because there is not enough information available, but because it can be challenging to relate it to today’s choices and actions.

Sitra’s weak signals work aims to provide tools to expand future-oriented thinking, challenge assumptions and envisage different futures. Challenging assumptions and imagining different futures is crucial because we cannot solve today’s problems using old narratives.

Weak Signals complements Sitra’s megatrend and vision work.