Article
The EU has fallen short of the ambition to tackle its deforestation impact – most of which is today outsourced to third countries. A new Trase report models how the EU can cut the deforestation, emissions and biodiversity impacts embedded in its consumption of seven forest‑risk commodities by combining the EU Deforestation Regulation with complementary demand, production and trade measures.
Senior Lead, Sitra International Programmes
Published
8.4.2026
The EU’s consumption of cattle, cocoa, coffee, soy, oil palm, rubber and timber continues to drive deforestation and biodiversity loss worldwide. The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) aims to reduce these impacts through due diligence and traceability requirements, but its implementation has been postponed, and its effectiveness will depend heavily on enforcement strength, product scope and political commitment.
A new Trase report funded by Sitra examines how additional policy measures could both offer alternative solutions and at the same time significantly enhance the EU’s ability to cut its global deforestation footprint by up to 85%. The report sets a modelled baseline for deforestation and associated greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity footprints for the EU27, and then compares the results from a range of exploratory, but achievable, policy scenarios against this baseline.
In the modelled 2022 baseline, the EU27 deforestation footprint across the seven commodities is 162,240 hectares, dominated by cattle (48%) and concentrated in a few producer countries such as Brazil, China, Indonesia and Côte d’Ivoire. Under low-ambition EUDR implementation, the footprint falls to 127,096 ha (−21.7%); medium ambition reduces it to 109,668 ha (−32.4%); and high ambition to 51,582 ha (−68.2%). These results highlight both the potential and the limitations of relying on the EUDR alone – especially if implementation is uneven across EU member states or weakened politically.
The report then evaluates complementary policy levers grouped into sustainable consumption, sustainable production and border adjustment mechanisms. These include a more diversified protein consumption, food-waste reduction, expanded European production of alternative products with lower impacts (such as soy or lab-grown proteins), improved forest management, and import pricing reflecting carbon or biodiversity impacts.
When applied together at high ambition, these measures alone reduce the EU footprint to 97,613 ha (−39.8%), exceeding the impact of low-ambition EUDR. When high-ambition non-EUDR measures are combined with low-ambition EUDR, the footprint falls further to 64,845 ha, and the deepest reduction – down to as much as 23,849 ha (an 85.3% reduction) – occurs when both EUDR and complementary levers are implemented at high ambition.
Finland outsources more of its biodiversity impact than the EU average. This largely reflects the fact that overseas deforestation is embedded in imported products, not domestic forest loss. Finland’s baseline footprint is 2,270 ha, accounting for around 1.4% of the EU total, but on a per capita basis, Finland’s footprint exceeds that of France or Spain, for example. The footprint is strongly dominated by cattle (61.6%), followed by timber (9.8%) and cocoa (8.7%).
The modelling shows that the largest reductions also for Finland come not from the EUDR alone, but from combining it with broader circular economy and food system measures, allowing Finland’s footprint to be reduced by 58.9%. In particular, beef-related deforestation could drop from 1,399 ha to 366 ha with dietary measures and an EU border adjustment mechanism in place. For timber, sustainable domestic production and reduced use of primary wood for energy could lower Finland’s footprint by more than half, to 100 ha (44.8% of baseline).
The analysis suggests that EUDR implementation is necessary but insufficient on its own. Circular economy levers, especially those related to more diversified protein consumption (including more plant-based), reduced food waste, material efficiency and regenerative forestry principles could deliver the largest additional reductions in the deforestation footprint. Pricing tools targeting deforestation risk imports can reinforce these effects if carefully designed. At the same time, cooperation with producer countries remains crucial to avoid leakage and ensure both the availability of verified deforestation-free supply and a fair transition, calling on policymakers both in Brussels and EU member states such as Finland to deliver a coordinated response.
The results imply that the highest impact strategy is to maximise EUDR compliance and combine it with actions that reshape consumption of the commodities – especially cattle products – most responsible for Europe’s overseas deforestation footprint.
Read the full report and download it.
Read more insights of the report on Trase’s news.