How can the EU cope with the transformation of global politics? Sitra’s foresight review discusses options for decision-makers

The transformation of Western security architecture and the international operating environment are forcing the EU to chart a new course for itself.  

Sitra’s foresight review, which was published at the Europe Forum, offers insights into key areas where the EU should focus, not only to
better navigate the present, but more importantly, to ensure future success. The review is part of a broader initiative launched by Sitra in spring 2025 to examine the developments shaping the future of the EU from multiple perspectives.

“The time of passive and reactive practices is inevitably over. It must be possible to consider multiple developments simultaneously. We are living in a time of hyper-rapid change, which requires the strategic and ambitious ability to perceive future opportunities. Otherwise, the turbulence will be endless,” says Veera Heinonen, Director of Foresight and Societal training at Sitra.

The review outlines five options that could help the EU redefine its direction and adapt in an ever-changing world. First, the EU now has a unique opportunity to deepen its internal market — a potential that must be realised by 2035. Second, the EU must reform its governance model: the current decision-making system was designed for a different era and now demands a choice between the centralisation and decentralisation of power, followed by the ambitious development of the chosen model. Third, citizens’ trust in the Union is now higher than ever, but the EU’s ability to meet people’s expectations will determine the kind of future Europe will have.  

Fourth, as the climate and environmental crises intensify and the pressure to strengthen competitiveness mounts, accelerating the green transition and achieving net-zero emissions within the set timeframe will be challenging, yet essential. Fifth, the EU must assume a more prominent role in global technological competition. A value-based technology policy will reinforce the Union’s sovereignty and reduce its dependence on US and Chinese digital solutions. 

“We interviewed several experts with extensive knowledge of the EU for this review, and it became clear that the EU needs to be ambitious in striving for a better future. We believe that the window of opportunity is now open. At the same time, the measures must be concrete, and we have sought to highlight these opportunities in this review,” says Elina Kiiski-Kataja, Senior Lead, Foresight and Training, at Sitra and one of the authors of the report.

Sitra’s new foresight reviews are intended to support decision-making

The EU’s opportunities in a time of transformation is the third foresight review published by Sitra. Previous reviews have been conducted on the transformation of the security environment in Finnish and English, as well as on future economic outlooks in Finnish. 

The aim of foresight reviews focusing on a specific theme or topic is to support decision-making, particularly in complex and uncertain operating environments. The purpose of the reviews is to provide an overview of the big picture of the changes, help outline various alternative developments and their impacts, as well as produce recommendations for measures. 

“Foresight reviews have emerged from the need to quickly produce structured information and insights on themes that are significant for Finland’s future. They support one of Sitra’s main objectives, namely foresight and the use of future knowledge in decision-making. I hope that the reviews will stimulate discussion and raise awareness of different alternatives,” says Sitra’s President Atte Jääskeläinen. 

In addition to producing foresight information, Sitra strengthens decision-makers’ future skills through two training programmes: Leadership training for the future EU and Leadership training for sustainable economic policy. EU training also aims to stimulate multi-voiced discussion on the future of the EU.