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Immigration, border security and citizens’ democratic rights dominate security debates in all four countries
According to the media analysis, in 2024, Europe was still “sleepwalking” through a comprehensive transformation of the security environment and the unfolding struggle over its future. The wake-up call came in early 2025 when Donald Trump’s return to power took the geopolitical turbulence to a new level. The media analysis examined public security debates in 2024 in four EU countries: Finland, Sweden, Germany and Italy. The analysis also featured a comparison with the public debate that took place in early 2025 (January–March). The media analysis is a follow-up to Sitra’s foresight review on the transformation of the international security environment published in December 2024.
Based on the data, security was not a major theme in the 2024 European Parliament elections in any of the countries examined. This may be considered surprising, given the fact that the geopolitical battle over the world order was, at least in retrospect, already well under way. While defence has not traditionally been part of the EU’s core functions or treaties, the Union plays a significant role in this complex struggle that links security, the economy and technology.
“The transformation of the security environment currently shapes public discourse and policymaking more intensely than at any time since the world wars. Foreign and security policy are no longer only policy domains among others – they will also directly and indirectly influence economic, environmental, innovation and social policies in the coming years. That is why we talk about security in public matters, and why it should be analysed,” says Jukka Vahti, Senior Lead from Sitra.
The data analysed reveals a hardening of tones and values in the European public discourse with respect to international rules, civil society and freedom of assembly – either as a response to, or under the pretext of, the deteriorated security environment. This shift poses a challenge not only to democracy in the EU countries but also to Europe’s commitment to defending the international rules-based order it claims to uphold.
In Finland, the most prominent topics were the war in Ukraine and military preparedness. Another major theme was the so-called border law, echoing similar debates in peer countries about border security, international treaties and immigration policy. Surprisingly, the economy was rarely linked to security in public debates, even though decision-makers have alluded to billions of euros in national and EU-level defence investments in the coming years. Likewise, connections between security and environmental issues were largely absent.
The topic of arming Europe became central in all four countries – however only in early 2025, following the more aggressive turn in the US long-term security policy taken by the Trump administration. Alongside border security and immigration, the third major common topic was citizens’ democratic rights, particularly the right to protest. In all the countries studied, experts and researchers voiced concern about measures that weaken democracy and the growing authoritarian tendencies. These included political players’ efforts or propositions to curtail freedoms of expression and assembly. For example, protests were framed as threats to traffic or business.
Deteriorated security environment narrows the horizon and discourages diverse voices
Sitra’s 2024 foresight report adopted a broader approach to the changing security environment. It looked beyond comprehensive security and security of supply and examined the transformation from the perspectives of power, technology, economy, people and nature. It sought to identify the key long-term developments shaping this shift and aimed to paint an overall picture of the change.
The report also identified key tensions affecting security debates: one between consensus-oriented security discourse and the diversity of voices needed to build resilience, and another between short-term measures and long-term perspectives. As regards the diversity of voices, the media analysis shows that the interconnectedness of security, the economy and technology was rarely addressed in 2024. Security-related topics were often discussed in isolation, with little effort to identify links between different phenomena. For example, the economy, environmental issues or trust in society were seldom associated with security.
Compared to 2024, the early months of 2025 suggested a shrinking future horizon, driven by growing global uncertainty due to the unpredictability of the US administration.
“The key question is: What short- and long-term developments are currently under way that are essential from the perspectives of Finland and Europe? If we focus only on crisis preparedness and response, we may weaken our capacity to anticipate and prepare for surprises and developments in the long run,” says Veera Heinonen, director of foresight and training at Sitra.
The transformation of Europe’s security environment will also be addressed at the Europe Day event at Oodi in Helsinki on 9 May. The discussion, which can also be followed online, will explore potential futures of European security and feature long-serving MEP Heidi Hautala, Academy Research Fellow Timo Miettinen and journalist Heikki Aittokoski. A deeper media analysis of public security debates in Finnish society will be published in June 2025.
