Finland needs a growth agreement – Sitra publishes an unprecedentedly comprehensive review of the building blocks of sustainable growth

The problems affecting the Finnish economy are deep and structural. Sitra proposes a solution in the form of a growth agreement that transcends government terms and party lines.

“Finland has all the necessary prerequisites to overcome its current underperformance. We have world-class technological expertise, strong societal trust that supports growth, and well-functioning institutions. From this starting point, we must aim higher,” says Sitra’s President Atte Jääskeläinen.

According to Sitra, the goal of the growth agreement should be a credible vision for the future that strengthens trust, supports urgently needed investments and opens pathways to sustainable growth. While the objectives lie in the future, credible decisions would have an immediate impact.

The growth agreement would define the necessary reforms and tangible actions to address key challenges, including: how to invest more in people and their skills; how to foster a culture and ambition for growth; how to create a world-class investment environment in Finland; and what constitutes sustainable long-term level of public services, pensions and social security

One concrete example in discussions about the growth agreement is artificial intelligence, which is hoped could bring a new wave of investment to Finland.

“We need a shared understanding of how we can benefit most from the AI value chain. Could we offer the world’s best growth platform for AI, encompassing energy solutions, data resources, expertise and quantum technologies – an independent European infrastructure, not just data centres?” Jääskeläinen reflects.

Sitra’s new publication, Growth Atlas 2026 (Kasvuatlas 2026), maps the foundations and opportunities for sustainable growth in Finland. The latest data has been compiled by nearly a hundred leading experts and there are more than 230 recommendations for action.

Across the board, experts contributing to the Growth Atlas highlight the need to focus in particular on skills, demographic development, and the natural capital.

Reforming the entire chain of competence – a strategy for demographic development

Research shows that as much as 50–75% of economic growth can be explained by human capital, that is, people’s competence, abilities, knowledge and skills.

Finland’s situation in this respect is alarming, with key indicators trending downwards: In just 15 years, Finland has fallen from the top tier of OECD countries to below average in the share of highly educated people. Learning outcomes in comprehensive education have declined, as have literacy and numeracy skills among younger adults.

“Investing in people and their skills is critical for the future. Evidence-based reforms are required at all levels of education, especially in comprehensive education and adult education,” Jääskeläinen stresses.

Productivity and growth require not only skilled minds but also a sufficient workforce. Population projections show that without immigration, Finland’s working-age population and economy will shrink significantly within 10–15 years. Solutions must be found quickly to prevent the erosion of public finances and well-being in the future.

“Ensuring favourable demographic development requires a clear population and immigration strategy. Finland should actively attract and retain international talent,” underlines Sitra’s Chief Economist Matti Paavonen.

Natural capital as a foundation – the green transition as an opportunity

Sustainable growth also requires the strengthening of natural capital. The green transition market will inevitably grow, and Finland has excellent opportunities for international breakthroughs thanks to both its natural resources and its technological competence. Finland is already known globally for developing circular economy solutions. Climate- and nature-based solutions should also be seen as opportunities for new value creation and enhanced competitiveness.

“All in all, Finland should shift resources from old industries to new high value-added services and technologies – and likewise transfer responsibility from older generations to younger future-makers,” Paavonen suggests.

Sitra’s mission is to anticipate future developments and accelerate economic growth within the limits of nature’s carrying capacity. The Growth Atlas is first and foremost an invitation to societal dialogue and collaboration. Based on the publication, Sitra will organise discussion and events across Finland.