Leading and Making Decisions in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world

Leading and Making Decisions in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world

Lessons from Complexity Science: workshop with professor Dave Snowden

Kun toimintaympäristö on kompleksinen, tilanne haastava ja ongelmat viheliäisiä, ”oikeita” ratkaisuja ei ole. Tällöin johtajalta vaaditaan kykyä määritellä haaste, tunnistaa erilaisia päätöksentekotilanteita sekä valita kulloiseenkin tilanteeseen sopiva johtamistyyli.

Walesilainen professori ja johtamisguru Dave Snowden on kehittänyt Cynefin-nimisen johtamiskehikon, jolla kompleksisuusteoriaa sovelletaan käytännön päätöksentekoon. Kehikko toimii erityisen hyvin yhteiskunnallisen tason johtamisen ja päätöksenteon tukena.

Työpajan teemana on johtajuus ja päätöksenteko epävakaassa, epävarmassa, kompleksisessa ja moniselitteisessä maailmassa.

Työpaja on kutsuvierastilaisuus.


8.30  Morning coffee

9.00  Is there a science to uncertainty?

This session will introduce complexity science and its implications for policy.  The session will expand on material in the HBR award winning article ‘A Leaders Guide to Decision Making’.  At the end of it delegates will be able to distinguish between systems that are inherently ordered, where forecasting and planning can be expected to produce consistent results and those which are complex or chaotic where radically different management techniques have to be adopted

10.30  Break

10.45  Making sense of the world so we can act in it

New research techniques using micro-narrative and micro-observations will be introduced.  These include non-hypothesis based approaches which prevent pattern entrainment and increase sensitivity to weak signals (the essence of both opportunity and threat).  The threat of a ‘tyranny of herds’ through social computing influence on decision makers will be contrasted with a ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ approach in which human sensor networks for real time decision support can be created using citizens and employees.  

12.30 Lunch

13.30  Managing the evolutionary potential of the present

The shift from fail-safe design to parallel safe-to-fail experiments linked to real time narrative feedback offers a new approach to improve service delivery while reducing cost.  The repurposing existing capability for new issues and opportunities, a form of managed serendipity will be introduced with associated methods and control techniques for senior leaders.

15.00 Coffee

15.30 From hierarchy, through matrix to networks

Finally we will look at how to organise both internally and externally to create a resilience and responsive network capability.  In Industry competitive advantage in a modern age is more about ability to situation a network of resource than to own the resource itself.   In government, by understanding complexity we can use our citizens in networks to create asymmetric response to asymmetric threat and opportunity.   We continue to forecast within context, we use backcasting to find ways to unpick blockages to progress, but we also need to learn how to sidecast, to sense and respond to the present to allow a new and sustainable future to emerge.

17.00  End of the workshop